Afghan leaders Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah will meet with US President Joe Biden at the White House on Friday for high-stakes discussions , The discussion may affect the future of Afghanistan because the United States withdrew its troops nearly 20 years after the invasion.
President Biden is expected to provide U.S. backed guarantee Analysts said that with the intensification of Taliban attacks, the Afghan government may urge Ghani and Abdullah to unite their opposing political factions.
At the same time, Ghani and Abdullah are expected to call on Biden to make specific and specific financial and diplomatic support commitments, including continuing to provide technical assistance to the troubled Afghan army.
“The security situation is worrying and it is deteriorating,” said Scott Warden, director of the Afghanistan Program at the American Institute of Peace, who had recently returned from a trip to this Asian country.
According to Reuters and other reports, as the Taliban intensified military operations, fighting between the Afghan government forces and armed groups has accelerated. A senior UN official warned the Security Council on June 22 that since May, militants have occupied the surrounding areas of the provincial capital, allowing the Taliban to control large areas of territory.
Deborah Lyons, head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, said, “It is undeniable that it may slip into a terrible scenario.”
Biden said on Thursday that he plans to discuss with President Ghani and Chairman Abdullah of the Reconciliation Committee a plan to airlift thousands of Afghans who support the Americans out of the country.
“Those who have helped us will not be left behind,” Biden said. “They will be welcomed here, just like other people who risk their lives to help us.”
U.S. Congressmen are pushing the Biden administration to speed up visa approvals Afghans who helped U.S. troops left the country and have Evacuation talk A large number of Afghans went to Guam, the United States.
The United States said that more than half of the work to withdraw equipment and troops has been completed. The withdrawal completed jointly with NATO troops may be completed as early as July, which is the deadline set by Biden on September 11, the 20th anniversary of the US invasion.
Indeed, fast U.S. withdrawal Worden said this caught Afghan political and civil society leaders by surprise, caused a psychological blow to the Afghan security forces, and frustrated public hopes and expectations.
Earlier this week, The Taliban occupy a key border crossing According to Reuters, they seized ammunition and armored vehicles from government forces in the town of Shirhan Bandar, which borders Tajikistan in northern Afghanistan, and dispatched customs staff to flee to safety.
“The ability of the Taliban to take over the region surprised many Afghans, I think the region,” Warden told Al Jazeera.
The Taliban’s success on the battlefield inspired the organization’s military branch and reduced the motivation to participate in peace negotiations. “It changes the strategic considerations of negotiation and prospects for peace,” Warden said.
White House and Pentagon officials stated that President Biden’s decision to withdraw US and NATO troops, and the timetable for the withdrawal of all US troops by September is fixed.
However, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told the media on June 21 that the Taliban’s offensive may lead to changes to the U.S. plan. “This is a dynamic situation,” “We noticed that as the situation changes, the schedule may fluctuate and change,” Kirby said.
When asked about the issue of Afghanistan at a media conference on June 23, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki insisted that the Pentagon was continuing to withdraw US troops in an orderly manner. She emphasized that the US did not see the Taliban launch an attack on the US military.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and General Mark Milly, the top U.S. military officer, assured Congress that the Afghan army will be able to Withstand the challenge Even in the absence of the US military, it is from the Taliban. But they also said that Al Qaeda may regain the power to attack the United States within two years-which is why it invaded in 2001.
However, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing reports from officials familiar with the new assessment, after the Taliban swept northern Afghanistan last week, US intelligence agencies concluded that the Afghan government may collapse within six months after the completion of the US troop withdrawal. .
Centcom Commander General Frank Mackenzie of the US Marine Corps told VOA earlier that US military planners have been assessing their ability to carry out air strikes on Afghanistan from remote bases elsewhere, if this is necessary to protect the United States and its allies. The benefits are necessary once its troops leave, this month.
Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the Center for New American Security in Washington, said the timetable for Biden’s withdrawal is “much more urgent than it needs,” and Ghani may want to persuade the government to adjust its approach. .
Curtis said that the Biden administration should allow contractors to stay in Afghanistan and continue to provide support to the Afghan Air Force, which relies on US technical assistance.
Curtis told Al Jazeera that Biden needs to “show that the United States has not simply turned its head to abandon this country because of the narrative that is now being established.”
But according to the agreement signed by Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump in February 2020 between the United States and the Taliban, which required the withdrawal of troops, an estimated 16,000 American contractors in Afghanistan must be withdrawn when the troops are withdrawn.
The Afghan government did not participate in these negotiations, and the peace talks between it and the Taliban, which should have been the next step, are deadlocked.
In the long run, the Biden administration relies on regional powers including Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, China, and Iran to help avoid an outbreak. Major civil war Analysts say that they support the peace process in Afghanistan.
Biden met with Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan in Geneva and Brussels last week to discuss the withdrawal of US troops and the security situation in Kabul.
RAND policy researcher Jason Campbell said that at the White House, Biden will provide Ghani and Abdullah with “guarantees” that the United States will continue to support the Afghan government financially and diplomatically after the withdrawal of the US military.
Campbell told Al Jazeera that Biden may make difficult political compromises between Afghans, which is necessary to establish a united front against the Taliban, and taught Ghani and Abdullah outspokenly “behind the door”.
“We know that from past experience, there is no problem with Biden’s remarks on his expectations.”
Ghani and Abdullah represent rival parties. The two raised objections to the results of the 2019 presidential election-finally reached an agreement, Ghani retained the presidency, and Abdullah served as the chairman of the reconciliation committee. After several months of fighting for who won the presidential election in 2016, the two previously ruled in the National Unity Government.