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By October, the third wave of COVID will sweep India: Reuters survey of experts | Coronavirus pandemic news

According to a Reuters poll of medical experts, the third wave of coronavirus infections is likely to hit India in October. Although it will be better controlled than the recent outbreak, the epidemic will continue for at least the next year. It is a public health threat.

A quick survey of 40 healthcare professionals, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists, and professors from all over the world from June 3 to 17 revealed that a significant increase in vaccination may provide for new outbreaks Some cover.

Among the respondents who made bold predictions, at least 85% (ie 21 out of 24) said that the next wave will come in October, with 3 predicting it in August as early as in August and 12 predicting it in September. The remaining three are said to be between November and February.

But more than 70% of experts, 24 out of 34 experts, said that any new outbreak will be better controlled than the current outbreak. The number of infections surged last year.

Dr. Randip Guleria, Director of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, said: “This will be more controlled because there will be far fewer cases, because more vaccines will be introduced, and there will be a certain degree in the second wave of epidemics. Natural immunity.” (AIIMS).

So far, India has only vaccinated about 5% of its estimated 950 million eligible population, leaving millions of people vulnerable to infection and death.

Although most health care experts predict a significant increase in vaccination activities this year, they caution against lifting restrictions as early as some states.

When asked whether children and people under the age of 18 are at the greatest risk in the potential third wave, nearly two-thirds of the experts, or 26 out of 40, answered yes.

Dr. Pradeep Banandur, head of the epidemiology department of the National Institute of Mental Health and Neuroscience (NIMHANS), said: “In terms of vaccination, they are completely primitive people because there is currently no vaccine for them.”

Experts warned that the situation could become serious.

Dr. Devi Shetty, a cardiologist at Narayana Health and an adviser to the Karnataka government’s pandemic response plan, said: “If children are infected in large numbers and we are not prepared, then there is nothing you can do at the last minute.”

“This will be a completely different problem because the country has very, very few pediatric intensive care beds. It will be a disaster.”

But 14 experts said that children are not in danger.

Earlier this week, a senior official of the Ministry of Health stated that children are vulnerable to infection, but analysis shows that the health impact is not so severe.

Although 25 of the 38 interviewees stated that future variants of the coronavirus will not invalidate the existing vaccine, in answering a separate question, 30 of the 41 experts stated that the coronavirus will be protected against the virus in at least one year. India’s public health poses a threat.

“COVID-19 is a solvable problem because it is obviously easy to obtain a solvable vaccine. Two years later, India is likely to develop herd immunity through vaccines and disease exposure,” said the Director of the Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland Said Robert Gallo, International Scientific Advisor of Virus Network.



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